The Sabbatical

Whew.

A few hours ago, I finished my "Mini-Prop Bet." In the span of eight and a half days, I played 2500+ games -- a feat especially impressive considering my sloth like nature. It really helped put Jay Weezey's 10k game month in perspective.




I won't lie. Around game 750, I hated life. I thought about buying out, although only for a brief moment. Instead of dwelling on the losses, I downed as much caffeine as possible and did my best to stay focused. And the rest is history.

After I had finished my last game, I sat back in my chair and thought, 'Now what?' I definitely didn't want to play another $16 -- I've made a promise to myself to not play one until 2011. Considering 2011 is less than three days away. I suppose it's not that big of a commitment.

But since I've (likely) played my last SNG on PokerStars in 2010, I think it's time to revel in an accomplishment. A two part accomplishment, actually. First, I am nearly a lock for the 2010 #1 ranking on Sharkscope's 9-10 Turbo $5-$15 Total Profit Leaderboard. And not only have I made the most profit in these games in 2010, but I eclipsed Glitlr's mark from 2009 and now hold the record for the most profitable year of all-time. Both are pretty sweet brags for a low/mid stakes grinder in my opinion.


Matt provided me with some great motivation down the stretch and was actively rooting for me to break his record, so a big thanks to him. And for what it's worth, I'm positive he could beat my score if someone offered him enough money to try. Until then, he'll have to keep besting large fields and winning big scores.

The Cow

It's been a few months since I posted a blog entry about strategy, mostly because I'm an instructor at PokerVT and offer private coaching, so I don't want to make it a habit of giving the milk away for free. Yes, that analogy means I am a cow.


Udderly amazing photoshop skills, I know.

Moooooooving on, here's a bit of backstory -- I've been throwing $6.50 STTs into my late night sets, and no it's not because I'm busto. The impetus for adding those games comes from a smallish prop bet that was mostly designed for "grinding motivation" during the final days of 2010. To win the bet, I need to play 2500 STTs, and both $16s/$6.50s are allowed. There was also a small profit requirement (easily done provided I put in the volume and didn't run poorly) but that's not point. Point is, in order to put in the required number of games, I've played roughly 100 $6.50s over the last few days.

It's still a small sample, I know. But I must admit that the game is a bit different at that level. Players are less skilled, which for the most part, is a good thing. But their weakness drastically affect how I have to approach certain "standard" situations. Basically, the $6.50s have more random players who have no concept of ICM. Additionally, the amount of money invested isn't much more than a happy meal. Combine these two together, and we come to the basic tenet of this post -- their calling ranges are much wider.

Many players familiar with ICM continue to make the same mistake over and over. They make what they believe is a standard shove, and are shocked when their opponents call with mediocre holdings.

How can he call there? Doesn't he know that he has to fold?

Uhh, no. Your opponent doesn't know. And while calling is very -EV for him, it's also -EV for you.

Don't berate him. I can't go a day without seeing one player harass another about a hand. If your opponent makes a mistake, correcting him is an even bigger mistake. I believe the commonly used phrase is, "Don't tap the glass."

So what do we do?

We adjust. It's simple, really. If a player is calling very wide, we adjust (tighten) our shoving range.

I'll refrain from elaborating much more than that because it's 4 AM and I feel like I could ramble on until 7. And because this cow is for sale. Or I suppose for trade, if you happen to have any magic beans.

The Dexter

When I first started playing online poker, I'd shut the door to my room to avoid any possible distractions and play in complete silence. As my experience (and bankroll) increased, the distractions became, well, less distracting. Nowadays, my sets are almost always accompanied with background music or even a television show.

I'm never paying that much attention to the show, but it's still probably somewhat -EV to not focus solely on my games. Problem is, playing a set by itself is somewhat boring. But for whatever reason, the background noise makes the games feel much less like work. And for me, that's most important.

If you love your job, you'll never work a day in your life.

While it might cost me a very small amount of equity in each game, if having music/television on makes me happier, I'm willing to make that sacrifice. Besides, it also more volume, so it might hurt my hourly but help the total profit.

This past week, my background noise of choice has been Seasons 1 and 2 of Dexter. The show's protagonist is a serial killer, yet somehow they make him empathetic.



Fantastic show, although I'm not sure I'll enjoy the the following episodes as much because they killed off my favorite character. I do still plan on checking them out though, as there's something oddly comforting about watching Dexter bludgeon someone while I'm in the midst of runbad. Therapeutic, almost.

"Oh I got sucked out on? Whatever, Dexter just murdered some dude. Yeah, let's pretend it's that regular who runs like god against me. Ahh, that's nice."

The Babe

In Game 3 of the 1932 World Series, Babe Ruth stepped out of the box, pointed to the center-field bleachers, and called his shot. On the next pitch, he blasted a home run to dead center.

My turn.

On Thursday, December 23 2010 at 11 PM, I wrote "I'm definitely due for a heater" on the PokerVT forums. And then?


Duane Kuiper's trademark 'home run call' for the 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants.




Heeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaatttttttttterrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

The Grumpy Gills

Playing 200+ games a day is not fun. And it's even less fun when you're losing. But during times like these, I have to remind myself...



Just keep swimming.
Just keep swimming.
Just keep swimming.
Swimming swimming.
What do we do?
We swim. Swim. Swim.

Keep playing and the profit will come. It's like the poker version of that famous phrase from 'The Natural.'

The Lowered Expectations

Eek.

So I've found a way to trick myself into putting in volume (-EV prop bets!), but the results so far have been horrific.

Yesterday I ran below expectation, but expectation itself was still decent.
Today I ran above expectation, but expectation was not pretty.


Running into the tops of ranges? Not so much fun.

I started the day off with my worst set (red line wise) ever. A break even set here, a slight winner there, and another big loser. I'm actually not down that much, only $66. I shouldn't be obsessing this much about the red line as it too is affected by short term variance.

I don't like posting these "results only" type blog entries, but this sort of thing weighs on me, even after tens of thousands of games. I have to reach deep down to shake it off, convince myself that it's only variance, and load more games. I can only imagine what it's like for the recreational player who goes through a rough patch.

Can't quit now, let's load at least one more set and see if we can right this ship tonight.

The Fish

My friend is a fish.

On Monday night, he came over to watch the Texans-Ravens football game. Early on, I mentioned something about the Texans being able to put up points in a hurry and that even if they got down early, their offense could easily bring them back. Fast forward to late in the 3rd Quarter, the Ravens are leading 28-10 and the Texans offense (except for one drive) had looked horrendous.



My friend: Still think the Texans have a shot?
Me: Yeah, I do.
My friend: Want to bet on it?
Me: Sure, what kind of odds can I get?
My friend: Why does it matter?

I spent the next five minutes trying to explain odds/probability. No, I wasted the next five minutes trying to explain odds/probability. I asked for 4-1 odds, which means that if the Texans have more than a 20% chance of winning the game, my bet is profitable in the long term. He insists that it doesn't matter, because they're only going to play the game one time.

Exasperated, I resorted to a passive-aggressive technique.

Me: No, you're totally right. I know nothing about odds or probability. Not like I make a living off it or anything.

That opened a whole different can of worms, as my friend proceeded to ask stupid questions, such as "Do you have a gambling degree?" as if a) Such a thing exists and b) Getting a degree in a particular subject automatically makes you an expert. Ugh. Just go back to watching the game on my flat screen television while you sit on my couch resting your feet on my coffee table in my condo, all of which were paid for by my knowledge of probability.

The Settlement

After several emails, FullTilt finally caved. I didn't think it was possible.

Hello Aaron,

Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support.

We've reviewed tournament 202876913 and found you experienced Internet connection issues while playing. As a courtesy, we've credited your account with the buy-in for this tournament in Tournament Dollars (T$), T$24.00.

Because I cashed in the other one, they refused to offer a refund. But the error occurred after I made the money. So if I made the money in every tournament and then the software glitched up on me, I wouldn't have a right to complain? That doesn't make sense. Sigh. I could shoot off another email, but I'm not really in the mood to do it. Maybe I will.

In related news, I had a slight issue with the PokerStars client last night. My internet lost connection for 10-15 seconds during the beginning of my set, and when I got it back, it wouldn't allow me to sit back in.



I restarted the program and everything worked fine. Whew. Afterward, I sent an email over to PokerStars to get some clarification about the issue. I didn't even ask for reimbursement as I admitted that I missed only a hand or two because of the problem.

Email sent: 8:19 PM
Response from PokerStars: 8:24 PM

Five minutes. Well done, guys. And this wasn't a standard, impersonal message. Their response was immediate, on point, and even better -- they refunded me $32. It shouldn't come as a surprise which site I prefer.

The New Movie

I used to scoff at game selection in the $16s. I felt like Allen Iverson in that famous post game interview where talks about "practice."


"We’re sitting here, and I’m supposed to be the franchise player, and we’re talking about practice. I mean listen, we’re sitting here talking about practice, not a game, not a game, not a game, but we’re talking about practice."

But that's because game selection didn't used to be that important. Games had one regular, maybe two if someone dared to load in the same set. Regulars would commonly wait for one another, as a sign of courtesy and respect. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen anymore. Regulars aren't any ruder, it's just that there are more hungry sharks and simply not enough fish to feed them all. Nowadays, it's common to see three or four regulars in the same game. And because playing as break even poker on many tables as possible is seen as heroic, sometimes the lobby will have 4/9 all the way down, meaning that the same four regulars are in the next twenty or thirty games.

A lot of players still act as if it's 2007 and game selection is unimportant. Perhaps it's a combination of hubris and ignorance. But if you're reading this and still not game selecting, you're lighting money on fire. During a set yesterday, I could practically smell the bills burning.

I logged on and opted to load in 1/9s with Simsina rather than the games above him with 3+ regulars. Our first few games looked decent, but then I was able to take part in possibly the worst $15+1 of all-time.

Including me, six other players are solid winners at $16s. Four of us are top twenty on Sharkscope's 2010 $5-$15 total profit leaderboard. And the other three? Very slight (<$100) losers. Gross. Now I can't place any blame on Simsina; he loaded first. But the other guys? Come on. In an effort to passively vent my frustration, I wrote this in chat:

abarone68: There's a new movie, I heard it'll be good
abarone68: Indiana Jones and the Lost Art of Game Selection
Dealer: Tournament is starting, good luck
JRIXYZLE: Like a real movie?
abarone68: Yeah, guess who's starring in it?

Okay, so maybe it wasn't so passive.

The FullTilt Fiasco

Alright FullTilt, the gloves are off. Although I guess I did that a while ago when I blasted Howard Lederer's father.

If you follow the blog, you know that the site malfunctioned on Monday and I sent an email to customer support. And then I waited.

On Tuesday afternoon, I received this.

Hello Aaron,

Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support.

Only seeing one of your cards can be one of the many effects of Lag , to help us figure out what the problem is can you please provide the following.

First, we need some information about your Internet connection. Please answer the following three questions in your reply to this email:

1) What type of Internet connection do you have?
2) What Internet service provider are you using?
3) Are you using a wireless Internet connection?

Next, we would like you to run a traceroute and email it back to us. The traceroute will help us determine why your connections to the server may be weak and target the source of the issue.

Sigh. Questions about my internet is merely a passive attempt to shift blame. But fine, I've got nothing to hide. I answer the questions, run the traceroute, and send a second email.

Hours late, another email pops into my inbox. I won't post the whole thing as it gets into technical mumbo jumbo, but the first sentence is very telling.

Hello Aaron,

I have had the opportunity to review the test you have submitted to us and cannot identify an issue.

Cannot. Identify. An issue. Well that means my internet is fine and the problem is on their end, yes? Nope. FullTilt asks another slew of questions and patronizingly informs me how the internet works. My response is a bit harsher this time; I reiterate that I didn't have a connection issue and the problem is theirs, not mine.

Hello Aaron,

Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support.

We would be grateful if you could try out the recommendations listed below, if these do not resolve the issue can please provide the following.

There may be a software or hardware conflict on your system causing your technical issue.

Please send us a DirectX diagnostic report so that we may see if there are any configuration conflicts between your system and the Full Tilt Poker software.

Okay, another test? Fine. Done.

Hello Aaron,

Thank you for writing to Full Tilt Poker Support and sending the necessary reports.

In regards to your diagnostic, we can see a few of your drivers need updating.

False, the drivers on my three month old computer are not out of date. Try again.

Hello Aaron,

Thank you for contacting Full Tilt Poker Support.

We reviewed your account and are unable to locate the tournament in which you experienced connection issues.

Wait. So first FullTilt blamed the problem on my internet connection. Then the blamed the problem on my hardware. And after I refute both, now they claim there never was a problem.



This is not over. I re-sent the two screenshots, told customer support their software hindered my ability to play poker and I would like to be reimbursed and would settle for rakeback. Too bad I did the same thing on Monday. So this is what it feels like to be back at "square one," huh?

The Cycle

I didn't go to sleep until 10 AM. I had been staying up later and later in the past few days, but this seems a bit excessive -- I place the blame on a combination of soft games, feeling uneasy about the bill, and the caffeine from way too many diet cokes.

When I woke up seven hours later, I was shocked to see that it was dark outside. Whoops, missed the entire day. It won't be fun breaking the cycle. I'd post a Bachelor Frog photo, but I think I've already used that one before.

The worst part is that despite the juicy games, I wasn't able to take advantage. From an all-in equity perspective, I had my worst day in quite a while. Most of the damage came in a handful of $27s where I managed to run exceptionally bad, but the bottom line is that in my last 222 games, I've got a negative red line and a negative green line.


I had a similar stretch in early November and then ripped off 2300+ games with close to a 10% ROI. Let's try to do that.

The Bill

I have a habit of writing these entries at the end of my day -- within twenty minutes or so of clicking "publish post," my head hits the pillow. Not tonight.

No, I've got this drive to play right now. To work. I want to get in as many games as I possibly can. Why? Well, today I learned that I may have a limited amount of time left to grind in the United States.

I'm still a bit fuzzy about the exact details, but what I do know is that there's a current bill that would legalize poker and has a very good chance of passing. From what I've heard, more than 50%. But the legalization comes with hefty (and odd) price tag. Before poker became completely legal, there would be a fifteen month blackout period in which American players would be restricted from playing online poker. FIFTEEN MONTHS. And that's the minimum amount of time - it assumes my inefficient government sticks to its current timetable. Based on current events, forgive me if I'm a bit skeptical.


Harry Reid leads the charge to legalize poker by making it temporarily illegal. Uhhh, what?

I really don't want to spend too much time dwelling on the political reasons why this bill is being pushed so much harder than the last few, but I think it's fairly obvious that deep pockets are funding this campaign; casinos want to capitalize on the e-rake and the government wants a piece. To say that this bill is a victory for poker players in the United States is laughable.

Unfortunately, I can't laugh for too long. If this bill passes, I'm going to have to start looking for a new place to live. A new country. I can't afford to sit on my thumbs for a year and a half, so I've narrowed down my choices to Canada or Thailand. There are pros and cons for both, but that's something I'll get into another time. Right now I'm still in a bit of shock. When I woke up this morning, I couldn't imagine I'd be three months from living abroad. Furthermore, I couldn't imagine that in the 'land of the free and home of the brave,' I'd have to move thousands of miles to exercise my freedom.

The One Card

Just sent off an e-mail to FullTilt and I thought I'd share it here.

My name is Aaron Barone and I play under the username 'abarone68' at FullTilt. Earlier today, something odd occurred during one of my games -- I was only dealt one card. I had several other SNGs up at the time, so I took a screenshot, folded and moved onto the next hand. I had actually forgotten about it until a few minutes later, when it happened again. While I'd like to think I have a significant edge over my opponents, I'm not sure it's high enough to overcome only being dealt one card. I have attached screenshots of both instances where I only received one card. I think it's fair to say that I was adversely affected in these games, so I would appreciate if something could be done to ensure it doesn't happen again and/or compensate me for it occurring this time.

Thanks,
Aaron

While FullTilt is not known for great customer service, I'll refrain from bashing the site. For now. It's only fair to give them a few days to review the situation and act accordingly. Although PokerStars would have this thing wrapped up by the time I got out of bed tomorrow. Oh, and by "act accordingly," I mean apologize profusely and include some sort of monetary reimbursement -- the vague automated "acknowledgment" message I received immediately after I hit 'send' does not count.

If I do get a response/reimbursement, I'll write an entry singing FullTilt's praises. And if that doesn't happen? Well, at least that'll be more fun to write about.

The Psyduck

Remember how I said I hate avatars? I still do...except for the one I have now.

My feeling about them, in general, still hasn't changed. The main concern I have about avatars is that the visual stimuli will help others recognize you and act accordingly. I guess I always thought I might be able to fly a bit under the radar but after a conversation with a buddy of mine, I realized it's no longer a feasible idea. Most regulars have me color coded anyhow, and I don't think I should give the randoms that much credit, so I doubt the new avatar will make much difference in terms of expected value.

What did I go with? Well, it's a bit anti-climatic because the title gave it away, but...

I choose you, Psyduck!





For those of you who spent your adolescence talking to girls and playing sports, Psyduck is one of the 150 original Pokemon. You can write the bio on wikipedia, but basically he's a cute dopey duck like creature who makes a very humorous "Psyyyyyyyyy" (Sigh) type sound.

The noise he makes is actually one of the main reasons I choose Psyduck as my avatar -- now, after every time I find myself in a situation where I want to roll my eyes or kick a puppy, I can write "Psyyyyyyyyy" in the chat box. I've done it a few times and it's great anti-tilt medicine. At least I think it is; I haven't really battle tested it because I somehow flipped the switch into god-mode. I'm not sure know how I did it, but to be fair, one of Psyduck's main attacks is confusion.

The Hibernation

Well, he did it. A few hours ago, Jay Weezey played his 10,000th STT of November. Congratulations are in order.

I'm fairly sure we won't see him at the tables for a while, as he'll likely take a much deserved break. I believe he referred to it as 'hibernation.' Jay sustained a respectable 5% ROI (lower than expectation, something I predicted earlier), but the most impressive part of his grind was the two thousand game break even stretch he suffered through. As a fellow grinder, I know that empty feeling. After each losing set, I not only think about how much I lost, but all of the time I wasted. Actual cost and opportunity cost, if you will. And it saps all the desire I have to play. But Jay Weezey fought through it, putting in an average of 300 games per day. And to think I only put in 71.5 hours at the tables this month.

Yes, I'm transitioning to make this about me. It's my blog, I'll do what I want.



I didn't make that much in SNGs (ran $1200 under EV), but it's nice to be able to rely on other streams of income like bonuses, staking, coaching/instructing, and live play. It's comforting to know that even if I continue to run poorly, I have a steady income -- something that's not too common in this industry.

When I started the calender year, I set myself a profit goal that I felt was both attainable and "sounded cool." And I think I would have reached it easily had I not taken June off. Oh well. With thirty days left, I still have somewhat of a shot at it, but I'll need to put in the hours and run like god. Well, maybe not god-like, but I'll definitely have to make back all of the EV I've lost in the last four months.